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Hessen Dreieich vs Friedberg — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
FT
3 – 0
Friedberg
Friedberg
9/15/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 7Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hessen Dreieich50%
×Draw21%
Friedberg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hessen Dreieich
2.17
Friedberg
1.61

Hessen Dreieich creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 92 away

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich
2.81
Friedberg
1.89

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich
1.33
Friedberg
1.52

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par
Friedberg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

Friedberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw
71%
Hessen Dreieich or Friedberg
79%
Draw or Friedberg
50%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
30%
Friedberg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
89%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
64%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
36%
Friedberg 1+ goals
80%
Friedberg 2+ goals
48%
Friedberg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
64%
Friedberg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Friedberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.81 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.17

Friedberg attack 1.89 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more
50%
level
21%
Friedberg scores more
29%

Hessen Dreieich at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hessen Dreieich vs Friedberg

Hessen Dreieich beat Friedberg 3-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Hahn Air Sportpark in Dreieich.