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Friedberg vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Friedberg
Friedberg
CANC
13:00
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
6/6/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 37Rasenplatz Rosbach-Ober-Rosbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Friedberg42%
×Draw21%
Hessen Dreieich36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friedberg
1.99
Hessen Dreieich
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 21 away

creates per match

Friedberg
2.46
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Friedberg
1.52
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Friedberg+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedberg ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Friedberg or draw
64%
Friedberg or Hessen Dreieich
79%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
58%

Winning margin

Friedberg wins by 2+
23%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Friedberg 1+ goals
86%
Friedberg 2+ goals
59%
Friedberg 3+ goals
32%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
84%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
54%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Friedberg (draw refunded)
54%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedberg at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.52 · 93 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedberg attack 2.46 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.99

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Friedberg scores more
42%
level
21%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
36%

Friedberg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Friedberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Friedberg host Hessen Dreieich

June 6, 2021: Friedberg take on Hessen Dreieich in Oberliga - Hessen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Friedberg host Hessen Dreieich at Rasenplatz Rosbach-Ober-Rosbach.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.