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Hessen Dreieich vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
5/28/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - Promotion Round - 10Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hessen Dreieich51%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hessen Dreieich
2.08
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.47

Hessen Dreieich creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 85 away

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich
2.81
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.60

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich
1.33
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.36

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par
Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

Eintracht Stadtallendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw
73%
Hessen Dreieich or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
79%
Draw or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
49%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
30%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
87%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
61%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
34%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals
77%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals
43%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
65%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.81 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.08

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 1.60 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more
51%
level
21%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more
27%

Hessen Dreieich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Hessen Dreieich 2–1 Eintracht Stadtallendorf

Hessen Dreieich beat Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Hahn Air Sportpark in Dreieich.