Eintracht Stadtallendorf 4–0 Hessen Dreieich

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hessen Dreieich

3/19/2022

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - Promotion Round - 2Kunstrasenplatz 2 Stadtallendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf41%

×Draw22%

Hessen Dreieich36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht StadtallendorfExpected goals in this matchHessen Dreieich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.69

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

1.82

Hessen Dreieich

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 21 away

2.13

creates per match

2.14

1.24

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

2.13

Hessen Dreieich

2.14

allows per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

1.24

Hessen Dreieich

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Stadtallendorf ↓

Hessen Dreieich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Eintracht Stadtallendorf or draw

64%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf or Hessen Dreieich

78%

Draw or Hessen Dreieich

59%

Winning margin

Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+

22%

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals

84%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals

54%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals

27%

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals

82%

Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals

50%

Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)

53%

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 2.13 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more

41%

level

22%

Hessen Dreieich scores more

36%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eintracht Stadtallendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff