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Hessen Dreieich vs Buchonia Flieden — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
FT
2 – 0
Buchonia Flieden
Buchonia Flieden
9/5/2020Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 1Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hessen Dreieich73%
×Draw15%
Buchonia Flieden12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hessen Dreieich
2.83
Buchonia Flieden
1.07

Hessen Dreieich creates 164% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich
2.81
Buchonia Flieden
0.82

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich
1.33
Buchonia Flieden
2.86

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par
Buchonia Flieden+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

Buchonia Flieden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw
88%
Hessen Dreieich or Buchonia Flieden
85%
Draw or Buchonia Flieden
27%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
52%
Buchonia Flieden wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
94%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
77%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
53%
Buchonia Flieden 1+ goals
66%
Buchonia Flieden 2+ goals
29%
Buchonia Flieden 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
86%
Buchonia Flieden (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Buchonia Flieden away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.81 + Buchonia Flieden defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.83

Buchonia Flieden attack 0.82 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more
73%
level
15%
Buchonia Flieden scores more
12%

Hessen Dreieich at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Hessen Dreieich 2–0 Buchonia Flieden

Hessen Dreieich beat Buchonia Flieden 2-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Hahn Air Sportpark in Dreieich.