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Buchonia Flieden vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Buchonia Flieden
Buchonia Flieden
CANC
14:00
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
3/7/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 22Sportplatz am Weiher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Buchonia Flieden29%
×Draw22%
Hessen Dreieich50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buchonia Flieden
1.48
Hessen Dreieich
2.00

Hessen Dreieich creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Buchonia Flieden
1.45
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Buchonia Flieden
1.86
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Buchonia Flieden+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buchonia Flieden ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Buchonia Flieden or draw
50%
Buchonia Flieden or Hessen Dreieich
78%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
71%

Winning margin

Buchonia Flieden wins by 2+
13%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Buchonia Flieden 1+ goals
77%
Buchonia Flieden 2+ goals
43%
Buchonia Flieden 3+ goals
19%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
86%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
59%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Buchonia Flieden (draw refunded)
37%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buchonia Flieden at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buchonia Flieden attack 1.45 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Buchonia Flieden defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Buchonia Flieden scores more
29%
level
22%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
50%

Hessen Dreieich at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Buchonia Flieden face Hessen Dreieich (Oberliga - Hessen)

Oberliga - Hessen returns with Buchonia Flieden hosting Hessen Dreieich. Match starts March 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Buchonia Flieden host Hessen Dreieich at Sportplatz am Weiher.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.