Hessen Dreieich 2–1 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

Hessen Dreieich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

3/12/2022

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - Promotion Round - 1Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hessen Dreieich44%

×Draw22%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen DreieichExpected goals in this matchBarockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.72

Hessen Dreieich

1.98

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

1.72

Hessen Dreieich creates 15% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

2.81

creates per match

2.10

1.33

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich

2.81

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

2.10

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich

1.33

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw

66%

Hessen Dreieich or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

78%

Draw or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

56%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+

25%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals

86%

Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals

59%

Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals

31%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1+ goals

82%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2+ goals

51%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)

57%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.81 + Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.98

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. attack 2.10 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more

44%

level

22%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. scores more

34%

Hessen Dreieich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff