Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2–0 Hessen Dreieich

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hessen Dreieich

4/23/2022

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - Promotion Round - 6Sportpark Johannisau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.59%

×Draw20%

Hessen Dreieich22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.Expected goals in this matchHessen Dreieich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.35

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

2.31

Hessen Dreieich

1.35

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. creates 71% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

3.10

creates per match

2.14

0.57

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

3.10

Hessen Dreieich

2.14

allows per match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

0.57

Hessen Dreieich

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.+0.00on par

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. ↓

Hessen Dreieich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. or draw

78%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. or Hessen Dreieich

80%

Draw or Hessen Dreieich

41%

Winning margin

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. wins by 2+

37%

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1+ goals

90%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2+ goals

67%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3+ goals

40%

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals

74%

Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals

39%

Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. (draw refunded)

73%

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at home — creates 3.10, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. attack 3.10 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.31

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. scores more

59%

level

20%

Hessen Dreieich scores more

22%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff