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Hertha Zehlendorf vs Dynamo Schwerin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dynamo Schwerin
Dynamo Schwerin
L. Stein 89'
N. Klingberg 33'
E. Pataman 15'
10/16/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 9Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf67%
×Draw17%
Dynamo Schwerin16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.58
Dynamo Schwerin
1.17

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 121% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 61 away

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.85
Dynamo Schwerin
1.36

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
0.98
Dynamo Schwerin
2.30

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par
Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

Dynamo Schwerin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw
84%
Hertha Zehlendorf or Dynamo Schwerin
83%
Draw or Dynamo Schwerin
33%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
46%
Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
92%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
72%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
47%
Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals
69%
Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals
33%
Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
81%
Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Dynamo Schwerin away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.85 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.58

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.36 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
67%
level
17%
Dynamo Schwerin scores more
16%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
E. Pataman
33'
N. Klingberg
89'
L. Stein

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Zehlendorf vs Dynamo Schwerin

Dynamo Schwerin beat Hertha Zehlendorf 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on October 16, 2022.

Goals: E. Pataman (15'), N. Klingberg (33'), L. Stein (89').

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.