Dynamo Schwerin 2–4 Hertha Zehlendorf

Dynamo Schwerin

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Hertha Zehlendorf

11/25/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 14Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dynamo Schwerin30%

×Draw22%

Hertha Zehlendorf48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo SchwerinExpected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.93

Dynamo Schwerin

1.48

Hertha Zehlendorf

1.93

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 30% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 52 away

1.65

creates per match

2.33

1.52

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Dynamo Schwerin

1.65

Hertha Zehlendorf

2.33

allows per match

Dynamo Schwerin

1.52

Hertha Zehlendorf

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Schwerin ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dynamo Schwerin or draw

52%

Dynamo Schwerin or Hertha Zehlendorf

78%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf

70%

Winning margin

Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+

14%

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals

77%

Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals

43%

Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals

19%

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals

85%

Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals

57%

Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)

38%

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Schwerin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.65 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.33 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dynamo Schwerin scores more

30%

level

22%

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more

48%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff