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Hertha Zehlendorf vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
3/5/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 23Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf62%
×Draw20%
CFC Hertha19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.23
CFC Hertha
1.14

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 96% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 44 away

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.85
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
0.98
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw
81%
Hertha Zehlendorf or CFC Hertha
80%
Draw or CFC Hertha
38%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
39%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
89%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
65%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
38%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
68%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
32%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
77%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.85 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.23

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
62%
level
20%
CFC Hertha scores more
19%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Zehlendorf vs CFC Hertha

Hertha Zehlendorf and CFC Hertha drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.