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CFC Hertha vs Hertha Zehlendorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
CANC
13:00
Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
3/17/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 21Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CFC Hertha34%
×Draw22%
Hertha Zehlendorf43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFC Hertha
1.61
Hertha Zehlendorf
1.83

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 52 away

creates per match

CFC Hertha
1.91
Hertha Zehlendorf
2.33

allows per match

CFC Hertha
1.33
Hertha Zehlendorf
1.31

finishing

CFC Hertha+0.00on par
Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFC Hertha ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

CFC Hertha or draw
57%
CFC Hertha or Hertha Zehlendorf
78%
Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf
66%

Winning margin

CFC Hertha wins by 2+
17%
Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

CFC Hertha 1+ goals
80%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
48%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
22%
Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
84%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
54%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
44%
Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFC Hertha at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFC Hertha attack 1.91 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.33 + CFC Hertha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CFC Hertha scores more
34%
level
22%
Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
43%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CFC Hertha face Hertha Zehlendorf (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with CFC Hertha hosting Hertha Zehlendorf. Match starts March 17, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CFC Hertha host Hertha Zehlendorf at Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.