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Hertha Wiesbach vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
5/27/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 12ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach49%
×Draw21%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Wiesbach
2.17
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.67

Hertha Wiesbach creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach
3.17
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.00

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach
1.33
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.17

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw
70%
Hertha Wiesbach or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
79%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
51%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
29%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
89%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
64%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
36%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
81%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
50%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
62%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 3.17 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.17

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 2.00 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more
49%
level
21%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
30%

Hertha Wiesbach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Wiesbach vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat Hertha Wiesbach 2-1 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn in Eppelborn.