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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Hertha Wiesbach — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
3 – 0
Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
4/15/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 6Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim38%
×Draw24%
Hertha Wiesbach38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
Hertha Wiesbach
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.17
Hertha Wiesbach
2.17

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.00
Hertha Wiesbach
1.00

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Hertha Wiesbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
62%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Hertha Wiesbach
76%
Draw or Hertha Wiesbach
62%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
19%
Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
79%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
47%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
21%
Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
79%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
47%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
50%
Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Hertha Wiesbach away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 2.17 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.17 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
38%
level
24%
Hertha Wiesbach scores more
38%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3–0 Hertha Wiesbach

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat Hertha Wiesbach 3-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.