Hertha Wiesbach 7–1 Ahrweiler BC: Result & Stats

Hertha Wiesbach

FT

7 – 1

Ahrweiler BC

4/29/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 8ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach81%

×Draw11%

Ahrweiler BC8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha WiesbachExpected goals in this matchAhrweiler BC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.50

1.08

Hertha Wiesbach

3.50

Ahrweiler BC

1.08

Hertha Wiesbach creates 224% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

3.17

creates per match

0.83

1.33

allows per match

3.83

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach

3.17

Ahrweiler BC

0.83

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach

1.33

Ahrweiler BC

3.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

Ahrweiler BC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw

92%

Hertha Wiesbach or Ahrweiler BC

89%

Draw or Ahrweiler BC

19%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+

63%

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals

97%

Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals

85%

Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals

66%

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals

66%

Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals

29%

Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)

91%

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 3.17 + Ahrweiler BC defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.50

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.83 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more

81%

level

11%

Ahrweiler BC scores more

8%

Hertha Wiesbach at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff