Ahrweiler BC 0–2 Hertha Wiesbach: Result & Stats

Ahrweiler BC

FT

0 – 2

Hertha Wiesbach

3/18/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 2Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ahrweiler BC19%

×Draw21%

Hertha Wiesbach60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ahrweiler BCExpected goals in this matchHertha Wiesbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

2.08

Ahrweiler BC

1.08

Hertha Wiesbach

2.08

Hertha Wiesbach creates 93% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

2.17

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC

1.17

Hertha Wiesbach

2.17

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC

2.00

Hertha Wiesbach

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Hertha Wiesbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw

40%

Ahrweiler BC or Hertha Wiesbach

79%

Draw or Hertha Wiesbach

81%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+

7%

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals

66%

Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals

29%

Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals

10%

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals

87%

Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals

61%

Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)

24%

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Hertha Wiesbach away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.17 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.17 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more

19%

level

21%

Hertha Wiesbach scores more

60%

Hertha Wiesbach at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff