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Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg — DFB Pokal 2018

Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
10/28/2025DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundOlympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hertha BSC49%
×Draw21%
SV Elversberg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC
2.17
SV Elversberg
1.67

Hertha BSC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC
2.83
SV Elversberg
2.00

allows per match

Hertha BSC
1.33
SV Elversberg
1.50

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par
SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw
70%
Hertha BSC or SV Elversberg
79%
Draw or SV Elversberg
51%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+
29%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals
89%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
64%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
36%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
81%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
50%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
62%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 2.83 + SV Elversberg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

SV Elversberg attack 2.00 + Hertha BSC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hertha BSC scores more
49%
level
21%
SV Elversberg scores more
30%

Hertha BSC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: Hertha BSC 3–0 SV Elversberg

Hertha BSC beat SV Elversberg 3-0 in DFB Pokal on October 28, 2025.

The match was played at Olympiastadion in Berlin.