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Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
9/29/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 7Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha BSC39%
×Draw25%
SV Elversberg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC
1.48
SV Elversberg
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC
1.55
SV Elversberg
1.57

allows per match

Hertha BSC
1.25
SV Elversberg
1.41

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par
SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw
64%
Hertha BSC or SV Elversberg
75%
Draw or SV Elversberg
61%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+
19%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals
77%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
43%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
19%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
76%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
41%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
52%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.55 + SV Elversberg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

SV Elversberg attack 1.57 + Hertha BSC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hertha BSC scores more
39%
level
25%
SV Elversberg scores more
36%

Hertha BSC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg beat Hertha BSC 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.