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Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
11/21/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 13Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha BSC53%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Braunschweig23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC
1.77
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09

Hertha BSC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 87 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC
1.55
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.94

allows per match

Hertha BSC
1.25
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.99

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par
Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw
77%
Hertha BSC or Eintracht Braunschweig
77%
Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig
47%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+
30%
Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals
83%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
53%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
26%
Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
66%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
30%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
69%
Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.99 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.55 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.77

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 + Hertha BSC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hertha BSC scores more
53%
level
23%
Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
23%

Hertha BSC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig

Hertha BSC beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on November 21, 2025.

The match was played at Olympiastadion in Berlin.