Eintracht Braunschweig 1–1 Hertha Berlin

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hertha Berlin

2/24/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 23Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig37%

×Draw24%

Hertha Berlin39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this matchHertha Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.54

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.48

Hertha Berlin

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

1.21

creates per match

1.69

1.39

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.21

Hertha Berlin

1.69

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.39

Hertha Berlin

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Hertha Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

61%

Eintracht Braunschweig or Hertha Berlin

76%

Draw or Hertha Berlin

63%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

17%

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

77%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

43%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

19%

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

79%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

45%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

48%

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hertha Berlin attack 1.69 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

37%

level

24%

Hertha Berlin scores more

39%

Hertha Berlin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff