Hertha BSC U19 2–0 Hamburger SV U19: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hamburger SV U19

J. Sherwood 78'

O. Rölke 10'

10/28/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 9Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Hertha BSC U1949%

×Draw20%

Hamburger SV U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.85

Hertha BSC U19

2.33

Hamburger SV U19

1.85

Hertha BSC U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 79 away

2.84

creates per match

2.10

1.59

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

2.84

Hamburger SV U19

2.10

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.59

Hamburger SV U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

69%

Hertha BSC U19 or Hamburger SV U19

80%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

51%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

29%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

90%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

67%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

41%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

84%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

55%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

49%

level

20%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

31%

Hertha BSC U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

O. Rölke

69'

A. Buljubašić← D. Richardt

78'

J. Sherwood

79'

L. Eising← E. Jaschan

79'

N. Hoffmann← D. Rath

81'

K. Bellomo← O. Rölke

81'

P. Pereira Mendes← S. Telib

83'

J. Nabe← G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

83'

N. Wallenßus← N. Tuppeck

90'

A. Isik← D. Karsten

90'

E. Bekdemir← L. Trus

Hertha

Hamburger

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rölke

▼

Trus

Manager: O. Reiß

81'▲K. Bellomo←▼O. Rölke

81'▲P. Pereira Mendes←▼S. Telib

90'▲A. Isik←▼D. Karsten

90'▲E. Bekdemir←▼L. Trus

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

BellomoMendesIsikBekdemirConradKardamBah

Manager: T. Johrden

69'▲A. Buljubašić←▼D. Richardt

79'▲L. Eising←▼E. Jaschan

79'▲N. Hoffmann←▼D. Rath

83'▲J. Nabe←▼G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

83'▲N. Wallenßus←▼N. Tuppeck

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

BuljubašićEisingHoffmannNabeWallenßusHeinbockelNana-Sarhene

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha BSC U19 2–0 Hamburger SV U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Hamburger SV U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 28, 2023.

Goals: O. Rölke (10'), J. Sherwood (78').

The match was played at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion in Berlin.

Hertha BSC U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha BSC U19 2–0 Hamburger SV U19