Hamburger SV U19 2–2 Hertha BSC U19: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Hertha BSC U19

T. Sanne 41' (pen)

L. Bozickovic 32'

M. Kesik 90+3' (pen)

S. Yildirim 44'

10/30/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 9HSV-Trainingsgelände

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Hamburger SV U1938%

×Draw21%

Hertha BSC U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.08

Hamburger SV U19

1.98

Hertha BSC U19

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 77 away

2.52

creates per match

2.47

1.69

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.52

Hertha BSC U19

2.47

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.69

Hertha BSC U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

58%

Hamburger SV U19 or Hertha BSC U19

79%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

62%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

86%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

59%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

31%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

87%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

61%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.69 · 77 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.52 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.98

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.47 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

38%

level

21%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

42%

Hertha BSC U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

L. Bozickovic

41'

T. SannePenalty

44'

S. Yildirim

74'

E. Preljević← D. Häßler

75'

E. Sohn← T. Sanne

75'

L. Butkovic← E. Appiah

82'

D. Ajvazi← T. Gündüz

85'

M. Boakye← K. Owusu

90'

E. Ntsiakoh← L. Bozickovic

90+3'

M. KesikPenalty

Hamburger

Hertha

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bozickovi

Paschke

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Kirch

75'▲E. Sohn←▼T. Sanne

75'▲L. Butkovic←▼E. Appiah

85'▲M. Boakye←▼K. Owusu

90'▲E. Ntsiakoh←▼L. Bozickovic

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

SohnButkovicBoakyeNtsiakohBöhmkerKiloSherbourne

Manager: M. Hartmann

74'▲E. Preljević←▼D. Häßler

82'▲D. Ajvazi←▼T. Gündüz

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

PreljevićAjvaziKühnGabelmannSeidel

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs Hertha BSC U19

Hamburger SV U19 and Hertha BSC U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 30, 2021.

Goals: L. Bozickovic (32'), T. Sanne (41' pen), S. Yildirim (44'), M. Kesik (90+3' pen).

The match was played at HSV-Trainingsgelände in Hamburg.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs Hertha BSC U19