Hertha BSC U19 5–1 Hallescher FC U19

Hertha BSC U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Hallescher FC U19

P. Aydogan 61'

M. Akumu 55'

J. Ndi 42', 41' (pen)

K. Bellomo 23'

E. Lorenz 19'

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hertha BSC U1963%

×Draw18%

Hallescher FC U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchHallescher FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.42

Hertha BSC U19

2.67

Hallescher FC U19

1.42

Hertha BSC U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 37 away

2.84

creates per match

1.24

1.59

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

2.84

Hallescher FC U19

1.24

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.59

Hallescher FC U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

81%

Hertha BSC U19 or Hallescher FC U19

82%

Draw or Hallescher FC U19

37%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

43%

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

93%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

74%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

49%

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

76%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

41%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.67

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

19%

Hertha BSC U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

E. Lorenz

23'

K. Bellomo

41'

J. NdiPenalty

42'

J. Ndi

46'

R. Trinko← J. Wagner

55'

M. Akumu

58'

L. Hein← Mohamed Samadi

58'

N. Langer← F. Kuhnert

61'

P. Aydogan

70'

E. Gündüz← O. Capoano

70'

L. Kannewurf← M. Akumu

73'

D. Bartholome← N. Hüttig

73'

F. Selimi← E. Stobbe

73'

O. Pörschmann← T. Miller

78'

B. Brusdeilins← L. Grundmann

Hertha

Hallescher

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: M. Hartmann

70'▲E. Gündüz←▼O. Capoano

70'▲L. Kannewurf←▼M. Akumu

78'▲B. Brusdeilins←▼L. Grundmann

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

GündüzKannewurfBrusdeilinsKoldžićBrennJerlijaKrumhaar

Manager: T. Donath

46'▲R. Trinko←▼J. Wagner

58'▲L. Hein←▼Mohamed Samadi

58'▲N. Langer←▼F. Kuhnert

73'▲D. Bartholome←▼N. Hüttig

73'▲F. Selimi←▼E. Stobbe

73'▲O. Pörschmann←▼T. Miller

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

TrinkoHeinLangerBartholomeSelimiPörschmannSchlosser