Hallescher FC U19 2–3 Hertha BSC U19

Hallescher FC U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Hertha BSC U19

E. Stobbe 61'

Mohamed Samadi 19'

L. Trus 29', 5'

J. Ndi 11'

9/21/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 7NLZ HFC Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hallescher FC U1929%

×Draw20%

Hertha BSC U1951%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hallescher FC U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.24

Hallescher FC U19

1.67

Hertha BSC U19

2.24

Hertha BSC U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

1.89

creates per match

2.47

2.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Hallescher FC U19

1.89

Hertha BSC U19

2.47

allows per match

Hallescher FC U19

2.00

Hertha BSC U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hallescher FC U19 or draw

49%

Hallescher FC U19 or Hertha BSC U19

80%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

71%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

14%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

81%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

50%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

23%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

89%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

65%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 37 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.89 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.47 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

29%

level

20%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

51%

Hertha BSC U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

11'

19'

29'

46'

B. Serifoski← J. Wagner

60'

D. Bartholome← R. Trinko

60'

J. Dolla← F. Kuhnert

61'

E. Stobbe

67'

A. Traoré← P. Aydogan

79'

C. Ishionwu← L. Grundmann

79'

E. Gündüz← L. Jerlija

83'

F. Selimi← N. Hüttig

Hallescher

Hertha

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: T. Donath

46'▲B. Serifoski←▼J. Wagner

60'▲D. Bartholome←▼R. Trinko

60'▲J. Dolla←▼F. Kuhnert

83'▲F. Selimi←▼N. Hüttig

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

SerifoskiBartholomeDollaSelimiSchneiderLangerJahn

Manager: M. Hartmann

67'▲A. Traoré←▼P. Aydogan

79'▲C. Ishionwu←▼L. Grundmann

79'▲E. Gündüz←▼L. Jerlija

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

TraoréIshionwuGündüzBrusdeilinsKoldžićBrenn

Match Recap: Hallescher FC U19 vs Hertha BSC U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Hallescher FC U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 21, 2024.

Goals: L. Trus (5', 29'), J. Ndi (11'), Mohamed Samadi (19'), E. Stobbe (61').

The match was played at NLZ HFC Platz 1 in Saale.

Hallescher FC U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hallescher FC U19 vs Hertha BSC U19