Hertha BSC U19 2–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Hertha BSC U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

O. Rölke 80', 72'

F. Schröder 90+3' (pen)

4/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 21Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hertha BSC U1959%

×Draw19%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.48

Hertha BSC U19

2.51

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.48

Hertha BSC U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 60 away

2.84

creates per match

1.37

1.59

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

2.84

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.37

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.59

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

78%

Hertha BSC U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

81%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

41%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

39%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

92%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

71%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

45%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

77%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

43%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.18 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.51

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.37 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

22%

Hertha BSC U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

B. Kehayov← L. Müller

64'

D. Koldzic← Y. Mausehund

65'

S. Lang← K. Müller

72'

O. Rölke

78'

A. Jozanović← P. Kampe

78'

S. Yüksel← J. Kratzenberg

79'

A. Isik← D. Karsten

80'

O. Rölke

85'

Amir Farhadi← J. Gottschalk

85'

E. Bekdemir← O. Rölke

90+3'

F. SchröderPenalty

Hertha

Carl

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Rölke

Manager: O. Reiß

64'▲D. Koldzic←▼Y. Mausehund

79'▲A. Isik←▼D. Karsten

85'▲Amir Farhadi←▼J. Gottschalk

85'▲E. Bekdemir←▼O. Rölke

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

KoldzicIsikFarhadiBekdemirDiezemannPalmaPohlmann

Manager: M. Raychouni

55'▲B. Kehayov←▼L. Müller

65'▲S. Lang←▼K. Müller

78'▲A. Jozanović←▼P. Kampe

78'▲S. Yüksel←▼J. Kratzenberg

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

KehayovLangJozanovićYükselShoshajErtmerFendel

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha BSC U19 2–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 7, 2024.

Goals: O. Rölke (72', 80'), F. Schröder (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion in Berlin.

Hertha BSC U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha BSC U19 2–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19