Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1–1 Hertha BSC U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hertha BSC U19

A. Jozanović 59'

L. Trus 32'

10/21/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 8Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1930%

×Draw20%

Hertha BSC U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.24

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.73

Hertha BSC U19

2.24

Hertha BSC U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 77 away

2.02

creates per match

2.47

2.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.02

Hertha BSC U19

2.47

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Hertha BSC U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

51%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Hertha BSC U19

80%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

70%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

15%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

82%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

52%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

25%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

89%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

65%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.00 · 60 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.02 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.47 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

30%

level

20%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

49%

Hertha BSC U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

L. Trus

46'

K. Bellomo← D. Karsten

58'

C. Ishionwu← L. Trus

59'

A. Jozanović

71'

N. Höfer← A. Shoshaj

80'

R. Hasani← A. Jozanović

90+2'

D. Unger← P. Kampe

90'

E. Bekdemir← S. Telib

Carl

Hertha

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Raychouni

71'▲N. Höfer←▼A. Shoshaj

80'▲R. Hasani←▼A. Jozanović

90+2'▲D. Unger←▼P. Kampe

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

HöferHasaniUngerKrauseDemskiLangYüksel

Manager: O. Reiß

46'▲K. Bellomo←▼D. Karsten

58'▲C. Ishionwu←▼L. Trus

90'▲E. Bekdemir←▼S. Telib

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

BellomoIshionwuBekdemirDiezemannConradKrumhaar