Hertha BSC U19 0–3 Borussia M'bach U19

Hertha BSC U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Borussia M'bach U19

T. Koukkumäki 66'

W. Boteli 60', 11'

3/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 5Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Hertha BSC U1943%

×Draw21%

Borussia M'bach U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.96

Hertha BSC U19

2.15

Borussia M'bach U19

1.96

Hertha BSC U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 73 away

2.84

creates per match

2.32

1.59

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

2.84

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.59

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

64%

Hertha BSC U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

79%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

57%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

25%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

88%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

63%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

36%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

86%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

58%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.15

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

43%

level

21%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

36%

Hertha BSC U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

W. Boteli

60'

W. Boteli

64'

L. Wörsdörfer← N. Horvat

66'

T. Koukkumäki

70'

L. Jerlija← E. Gündüz

70'

P. Aydogan← S. Telib

73'

S. Ketola← N. Vidic

80'

D. Koldžić← M. Krumhaar

84'

F. Hoxha← J. Uwakhonye

84'

F. Opoku Mensah← Y. Dasbach

Hertha

Borussia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Hartmann

70'▲L. Jerlija←▼E. Gündüz

70'▲P. Aydogan←▼S. Telib

80'▲D. Koldžić←▼M. Krumhaar

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

JerlijaAydoganKoldžićEkenNitschke

Manager: O. Kirch

64'▲L. Wörsdörfer←▼N. Horvat

73'▲S. Ketola←▼N. Vidic

84'▲F. Hoxha←▼J. Uwakhonye

84'▲F. Opoku Mensah←▼Y. Dasbach

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

WörsdörferKetolaHoxhaMensahKhadraouiNappiTrippel

Match Recap: Hertha BSC U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat Hertha BSC U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 1, 2025.

Goals: W. Boteli (11', 60'), T. Koukkumäki (66').

The match was played at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion in Berlin.

Hertha BSC U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hertha BSC U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19