Borussia M'bach U19 6–1 Hertha BSC U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Hertha BSC U19

F. Opoku Mensah 69'

F. Fleck 61'

Y. Michaelis 45+2'

T. Koukkumäki 37'

J. Uwakhonye 32', 26'

M. Kalckreuth 90+1'

4/12/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 10Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1939%

×Draw22%

Hertha BSC U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.89

Borussia M'bach U19

1.86

Hertha BSC U19

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 78 away

2.30

creates per match

2.46

1.31

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.30

Hertha BSC U19

2.46

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.31

Hertha BSC U19

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

60%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Hertha BSC U19

78%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

61%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

84%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

55%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

28%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

85%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

56%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.86

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.46 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

39%

level

22%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

40%

Hertha BSC U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

32'

37'

45+2'

46'

F. Hoxha← Y. Michaelis

46'

M. Kalckreuth← M. Krumhaar

46'

M. Wehbe← B. Lum

61'

F. Fleck

62'

E. Krasniqi← M. Nguefack

62'

S. Ketola← A. Muradyan

69'

F. Opoku Mensah

72'

C. Wolf← S. Gouram

82'

E. Khadraoui← T. Koukkumäki

82'

J. Deumi Nappi← N. Vidic

86'

X. Kuitche← S. Hagenah

90+1'

M. Kalckreuth

Borussia

Hertha

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Koukkumäk

▼

Nguefack

⚽

▼

Michaelis

⚽2

Uwakhonye

Manager: O. Kirch

46'▲F. Hoxha←▼Y. Michaelis

62'▲E. Krasniqi←▼M. Nguefack

62'▲S. Ketola←▼A. Muradyan

82'▲E. Khadraoui←▼T. Koukkumäki

82'▲J. Deumi Nappi←▼N. Vidic

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

HoxhaKrasniqiKetolaKhadraouiNappiBecker

Manager: M. Hartmann

46'▲M. Kalckreuth←▼M. Krumhaar

46'▲M. Wehbe←▼B. Lum

72'▲C. Wolf←▼S. Gouram

86'▲X. Kuitche←▼S. Hagenah

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

KalckreuthWehbeWolfKuitcheNitschke