Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hertha BSC U19 vs BAK 07 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
BAK 07 U19
BAK 07 U19
M. Karbuzoğlu 81' (pen)
N. Hildebrandt 34', 20' (pen)
Y. Abdul-Hamid 11'
8/2/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 1Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hertha BSC U1965%
×Draw17%
BAK 07 U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC U19
2.81
BAK 07 U19
1.46

Hertha BSC U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19
2.84
BAK 07 U19
1.33

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19
1.59
BAK 07 U19
2.79

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par
BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw
82%
Hertha BSC U19 or BAK 07 U19
83%
Draw or BAK 07 U19
35%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
44%
BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
94%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
76%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
52%
BAK 07 U19 1+ goals
77%
BAK 07 U19 2+ goals
43%
BAK 07 U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
78%
BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.81

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more
65%
level
17%
BAK 07 U19 scores more
18%

Hertha BSC U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Y. Abdul-Hamid
20'
N. HildebrandtPenalty
34'
N. Hildebrandt
81'
M. KarbuzoğluPenalty
Hertha
BAK
M. Hartmann
Manager: M. Hartmann
J. Eckert
Manager: J. Eckert

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha BSC U19 3–1 BAK 07 U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat BAK 07 U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 2, 2025.

Goals: Y. Abdul-Hamid (11'), N. Hildebrandt (20' pen, 34'), M. Karbuzoğlu (81' pen).

The match was played at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion in Berlin.