BAK 07 U19 3–3 Hertha BSC U19: Result & Stats

BAK 07 U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hertha BSC U19

D.Kanyi 90+1'

J. Kliti 73' (pen)

B. Kizildemir 44'

P. Matiebel 85'

T. Gündüz 53'

B. Dárdai 21'

9/3/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 4Poststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

BAK 07 U1930%

×Draw20%

Hertha BSC U1950%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK 07 U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.25

BAK 07 U19

1.73

Hertha BSC U19

2.25

Hertha BSC U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 77 away

2.03

creates per match

2.47

2.03

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hertha BSC U19

2.47

allows per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hertha BSC U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK 07 U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

BAK 07 U19 or draw

50%

BAK 07 U19 or Hertha BSC U19

80%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

70%

Winning margin

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

15%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

82%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

52%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

25%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

89%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

65%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK 07 U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK 07 U19 attack 2.03 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.47 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BAK 07 U19 scores more

30%

level

20%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

50%

Hertha BSC U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

44'

53'

64'

73'

L. Michelbrink← D. Ajvazi

73'

J. KlitiPenalty

77'

V. Stange← P. Pereira Mendes

85'

P. Matiebel

88'

D.Kanyi← T. Iraki

88'

H. Berjaoui← E. Ipek

90+2'

M. Kalini← A. Lubaki

90+1'

D.Kanyi

BAK

Hertha

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: C. Brauer

64'▲B. Sevim←▼O. Iraqi

88'▲D.Kanyi←▼T. Iraki

88'▲H. Berjaoui←▼E. Ipek

90+2'▲M. Kalini←▼A. Lubaki

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

SevimD.KanyiBerjaouiKaliniAksoyYoussefKardam

Manager: O. Reiß

73'▲L. Michelbrink←▼D. Ajvazi

77'▲V. Stange←▼P. Pereira Mendes

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

MichelbrinkStangeKarstenSommerMohwinkelAkova

U19 Bundesliga: BAK 07 U19 3–3 Hertha BSC U19

BAK 07 U19 and Hertha BSC U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on September 3, 2022.

Goals: B. Dárdai (21'), B. Kizildemir (44'), T. Gündüz (53'), J. Kliti (73' pen), P. Matiebel (85'), D.Kanyi (90+1').

The match was played at Poststadion in Berlin.

BAK 07 U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: BAK 07 U19 3–3 Hertha BSC U19