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Hertha BSC U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2/7/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Hertha BSC U1958%
×Draw19%
Arminia Bielefeld U1923%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC U19
2.45
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.52

Hertha BSC U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19
2.84
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.44

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.06

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw
77%
Hertha BSC U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19
81%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19
42%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
37%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
91%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
70%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
44%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
78%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
45%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.45

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more
58%
level
19%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
23%

Hertha BSC U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hertha
Arminia
M. Hartmann
Manager: M. Hartmann
M. Drobe
Manager: M. Drobe

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha BSC U19 3–1 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 7, 2026.