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Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
4/11/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1929%
×Draw21%
Hertha BSC U1950%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.55
Hertha BSC U19
2.08

Hertha BSC U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 77 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.66
Hertha BSC U19
2.47

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.69
Hertha BSC U19
1.44

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par
Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw
50%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Hertha BSC U19
79%
Draw or Hertha BSC U19
71%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
13%
Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
79%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
46%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
20%
Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
87%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
61%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.69 · 59 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.66 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.47 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
29%
level
21%
Hertha BSC U19 scores more
50%

Hertha BSC U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Arminia
Hertha
M. Drobe
Manager: M. Drobe
M. Hartmann
Manager: M. Hartmann

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 2–1 Hertha BSC U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Hertha BSC U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 11, 2026.