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Hertha BSC II vs Greifswalder FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Hertha BSC II
Hertha BSC II
Preview
17:00
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
8/4/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 3
Big match
45%
Greifswalder FC
model favours
29%27%45%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hertha BSC II29%
×Draw27%
Greifswalder FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC II
1.09
Greifswalder FC
1.42

Greifswalder FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC II
0.79
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

Hertha BSC II
1.71
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

Hertha BSC II+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC II ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hertha BSC II or draw
55%
Hertha BSC II or Greifswalder FC
73%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
71%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC II wins by 2+
11%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hertha BSC II 1+ goals
66%
Hertha BSC II 2+ goals
30%
Hertha BSC II 3+ goals
10%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
76%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
41%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC II (draw refunded)
39%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC II at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC II attack 0.79 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + Hertha BSC II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hertha BSC II scores more
29%
level
27%
Greifswalder FC scores more
45%

Greifswalder FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Hertha BSC II sit 15, Greifswalder FC 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WLL
FC
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hertha BSC II host Greifswalder FC

August 4, 2026: Hertha BSC II take on Greifswalder FC in Regionalliga - Nordost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.