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Hertha BSC II vs Greifswalder FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hertha BSC II
Hertha BSC II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
G. Kocer 77'
A. Bolyki 46'
1/11/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Olympiapark August-Bier Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hertha BSC II40%
×Draw21%
Greifswalder FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC II
1.96
Greifswalder FC
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC II
2.29
Greifswalder FC
2.00

allows per match

Hertha BSC II
1.86
Greifswalder FC
1.64

finishing

Hertha BSC II+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC II ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hertha BSC II or draw
61%
Hertha BSC II or Greifswalder FC
79%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
60%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC II wins by 2+
22%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hertha BSC II 1+ goals
86%
Hertha BSC II 2+ goals
58%
Hertha BSC II 3+ goals
31%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
85%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
57%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC II (draw refunded)
51%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC II attack 2.29 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.96

Greifswalder FC attack 2.00 + Hertha BSC II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hertha BSC II scores more
40%
level
21%
Greifswalder FC scores more
39%

Hertha BSC II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hertha BSC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
A. Bolyki
77'
G. Kocer
Hertha
Greifswalder
R. Hasanovic
Manager: R. Hasanovic
M. Zschiesche
Manager: M. Zschiesche

Match Recap: Hertha BSC II vs Greifswalder FC

Greifswalder FC beat Hertha BSC II 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2025.

Goals: A. Bolyki (46'), G. Kocer (77').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Olympiapark August-Bier Platz 2 in Berlin.