Greifswalder FC vs Hertha BSC II — League #85 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Greifswalder FC51%
Hertha BSC II25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Greifswalder FC creates 52% more chances
Season form · 33 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Greifswalder FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches
Hertha BSC II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + Hertha BSC II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.67
Hertha BSC II attack 1.21 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Greifswalder FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Hertha BSC II substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
SV Babelsberg 03Greifswalder FC
Hallescher FC
Magdeburg II
BFC Preussen
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
Chemnitzer FC
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
FSV Zwickau
Altglienicke
BFC Dynamo
Lokomotive Leipzig
Luckenwalde
ZFC MeuselwitzHertha BSC II
Hertha Zehlendorf
BSG Chemie Leipzig
EilenburgIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Greifswalder FC host Hertha BSC II on Sunday, 28 July 2024 at 11:00. The match is part of the League #85 2026/2027 season.
League #85: Greifswalder FC 0–1 Hertha BSC II
Hertha BSC II beat Greifswalder FC 1-0 in League #85 on July 28, 2024.
Goals: O. Rölke (63').
The match was played at Volksstadion Greifswald in Greifswald.