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Hertha Berlin vs Karlsruher SC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
11/11/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 13Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha Berlin44%
×Draw24%
Karlsruher SC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.63
Karlsruher SC
1.34

Hertha Berlin creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
1.55
Karlsruher SC
1.43

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.25
Karlsruher SC
1.71

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

Karlsruher SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
68%
Hertha Berlin or Karlsruher SC
76%
Draw or Karlsruher SC
56%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
23%
Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
80%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
48%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
22%
Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
74%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
39%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
58%
Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.55 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Karlsruher SC attack 1.43 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
44%
level
24%
Karlsruher SC scores more
32%

Hertha Berlin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Berlin vs Karlsruher SC

Hertha Berlin and Karlsruher SC drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.