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Hertha Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 — DFB Pokal 2018

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
11/1/2023DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundOlympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hertha Berlin46%
×Draw22%
FSV Mainz 0532%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.97
FSV Mainz 05
1.61

Hertha Berlin creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
2.83
FSV Mainz 05
1.89

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.33
FSV Mainz 05
1.11

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
68%
Hertha Berlin or FSV Mainz 05
78%
Draw or FSV Mainz 05
54%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
26%
FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
86%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
58%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
31%
FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals
80%
FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
48%
FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
59%
FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 2.83 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.97

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.89 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
46%
level
22%
FSV Mainz 05 scores more
32%

Hertha Berlin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: Hertha Berlin 3–0 FSV Mainz 05

Hertha Berlin beat FSV Mainz 05 3-0 in DFB Pokal on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.