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Hertha Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga 2018

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
5/7/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 33Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Hertha Berlin41%
×Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0535%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.58
FSV Mainz 05
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 115 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
1.37
FSV Mainz 05
1.20

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.70
FSV Mainz 05
1.80

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
65%
Hertha Berlin or FSV Mainz 05
76%
Draw or FSV Mainz 05
59%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
20%
FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
79%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
47%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
21%
FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals
77%
FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
42%
FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
54%
FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.70 · 86 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.37 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.20 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
41%
level
24%
FSV Mainz 05 scores more
35%

Hertha Berlin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Hertha Berlin 1–2 FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 beat Hertha Berlin 2-1 in Bundesliga on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.