Hertha Berlin 1–2 FC St. Pauli: Result & Stats

Hertha Berlin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC St. Pauli

9/30/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 8Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha Berlin45%

×Draw24%

FC St. Pauli31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BerlinExpected goals in this matchFC St. Pauli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.31

Hertha Berlin

1.64

FC St. Pauli

1.31

Hertha Berlin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

1.55

creates per match

1.37

1.25

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Hertha Berlin

1.55

FC St. Pauli

1.37

allows per match

Hertha Berlin

1.25

FC St. Pauli

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

FC St. Pauli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw

69%

Hertha Berlin or FC St. Pauli

76%

Draw or FC St. Pauli

55%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

23%

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

81%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

49%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

23%

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals

73%

FC St. Pauli 2+ goals

38%

FC St. Pauli 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

60%

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.55 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.64

FC St. Pauli attack 1.37 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more

45%

level

24%

FC St. Pauli scores more

31%

Hertha Berlin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff