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FC St. Pauli vs Hertha Berlin — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
3/10/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 25Millerntor-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC St. Pauli47%
×Draw23%
Hertha Berlin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC St. Pauli
1.75
Hertha Berlin
1.36

FC St. Pauli creates 29% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC St. Pauli
1.73
Hertha Berlin
1.69

allows per match

FC St. Pauli
1.03
Hertha Berlin
1.76

finishing

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par
Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC St. Pauli ↓

Hertha Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC St. Pauli or draw
70%
FC St. Pauli or Hertha Berlin
77%
Draw or Hertha Berlin
53%

Winning margin

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
25%
Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
83%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
52%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
25%
Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
74%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
39%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
61%
Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC St. Pauli at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC St. Pauli attack 1.73 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hertha Berlin attack 1.69 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC St. Pauli scores more
47%
level
23%
Hertha Berlin scores more
30%

FC St. Pauli at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli 2–0 Hertha Berlin

FC St. Pauli beat Hertha Berlin 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg.