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Heroes vs AS Kigali — National Soccer League 2019

Heroes
Heroes
CANC
09:00
AS Kigali
AS Kigali
5/31/2020National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Heroes23%
×Draw26%
AS Kigali51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heroes
0.91
AS Kigali
1.52

AS Kigali creates 67% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 94 away

creates per match

Heroes
0.85
AS Kigali
0.97

allows per match

Heroes
2.08
AS Kigali
0.96

finishing

Heroes+0.00on par
AS Kigali+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heroes ↓

AS Kigali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Heroes or draw
49%
Heroes or AS Kigali
74%
Draw or AS Kigali
77%

Winning margin

Heroes wins by 2+
8%
AS Kigali wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Heroes 1+ goals
60%
Heroes 2+ goals
23%
Heroes 3+ goals
6%
AS Kigali 1+ goals
78%
AS Kigali 2+ goals
45%
AS Kigali 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Heroes (draw refunded)
31%
AS Kigali (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heroes at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

AS Kigali away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heroes attack 0.85 + AS Kigali defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

AS Kigali attack 0.97 + Heroes defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Heroes scores more
23%
level
26%
AS Kigali scores more
51%

AS Kigali at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AS Kigali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Heroes host AS Kigali

May 31, 2020: Heroes take on AS Kigali in National Soccer League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.