AS Kigali 1–0 Heroes: Result & Stats

AS Kigali

FT

1 – 0

Heroes

12/20/2019

National Soccer League · Round 15Stade Régional de Nyamirambo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

AS Kigali51%

×Draw28%

Heroes21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS KigaliExpected goals in this matchHeroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.77

AS Kigali

1.35

Heroes

0.77

AS Kigali creates 75% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

0.73

0.81

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

AS Kigali

1.25

Heroes

0.73

allows per match

AS Kigali

0.81

Heroes

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Kigali+0.00on par

Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kigali ↓

Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

AS Kigali or draw

79%

AS Kigali or Heroes

72%

Draw or Heroes

49%

Winning margin

AS Kigali wins by 2+

24%

Heroes wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

AS Kigali 1+ goals

74%

AS Kigali 2+ goals

39%

AS Kigali 3+ goals

15%

Heroes 1+ goals

54%

Heroes 2+ goals

18%

Heroes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

AS Kigali (draw refunded)

70%

Heroes (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kigali at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 97 matches

Heroes away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kigali attack 1.25 + Heroes defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Heroes attack 0.73 + AS Kigali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AS Kigali scores more

51%

level

28%

Heroes scores more

21%

AS Kigali at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AS Kigali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff