Héroes de Falcón 2–1 Aragua FC: Result & Stats

Héroes de Falcón

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aragua FC

3/23/2024

Segunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio de Fútbol Ludgero Correia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Héroes de Falcón51%

×Draw26%

Aragua FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Héroes de FalcónExpected goals in this matchAragua FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.90

Héroes de Falcón

1.49

Aragua FC

0.90

Héroes de Falcón creates 66% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 37 away

1.74

creates per match

0.86

0.93

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Héroes de Falcón

1.74

Aragua FC

0.86

allows per match

Héroes de Falcón

0.93

Aragua FC

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Héroes de Falcón+0.00on par

Aragua FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Héroes de Falcón ↓

Aragua FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Héroes de Falcón or draw

77%

Héroes de Falcón or Aragua FC

74%

Draw or Aragua FC

49%

Winning margin

Héroes de Falcón wins by 2+

26%

Aragua FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Héroes de Falcón 1+ goals

77%

Héroes de Falcón 2+ goals

44%

Héroes de Falcón 3+ goals

19%

Aragua FC 1+ goals

59%

Aragua FC 2+ goals

23%

Aragua FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Héroes de Falcón (draw refunded)

69%

Aragua FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Héroes de Falcón at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Aragua FC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Héroes de Falcón attack 1.74 + Aragua FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Aragua FC attack 0.86 + Héroes de Falcón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Héroes de Falcón scores more

51%

level

26%

Aragua FC scores more

23%

Héroes de Falcón at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Héroes de Falcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff