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Aragua FC vs Héroes de Falcón — Segunda División 2018

Aragua FC
Aragua FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Héroes de Falcón
Héroes de Falcón
5/12/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 9Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aragua FC51%
×Draw28%
Héroes de Falcón21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragua FC
1.36
Héroes de Falcón
0.78

Aragua FC creates 74% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

creates per match

Aragua FC
1.19
Héroes de Falcón
0.87

allows per match

Aragua FC
0.68
Héroes de Falcón
1.53

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par
Héroes de Falcón+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Héroes de Falcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw
79%
Aragua FC or Héroes de Falcón
72%
Draw or Héroes de Falcón
49%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+
24%
Héroes de Falcón wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals
74%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
39%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
16%
Héroes de Falcón 1+ goals
54%
Héroes de Falcón 2+ goals
18%
Héroes de Falcón 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)
70%
Héroes de Falcón (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

Héroes de Falcón away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 1.19 + Héroes de Falcón defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Héroes de Falcón attack 0.87 + Aragua FC defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aragua FC scores more
51%
level
28%
Héroes de Falcón scores more
21%

Aragua FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aragua FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Aragua FC 2–1 Héroes de Falcón

Aragua FC beat Héroes de Falcón 2-1 in Segunda División on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez in Maracay.