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Hermannstadt W vs Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Hermannstadt W
Hermannstadt W
FT
1 – 6
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
12/9/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 14Stadionul Măgura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hermannstadt W13%
×Draw16%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hermannstadt W
1.18
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
2.84

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W creates 141% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

creates per match

Hermannstadt W
1.00
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.92

allows per match

Hermannstadt W
3.77
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.36

finishing

Hermannstadt W+0.00on par
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hermannstadt W ↓

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Hermannstadt W or draw
29%
Hermannstadt W or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
84%
Draw or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
87%

Winning margin

Hermannstadt W wins by 2+
5%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Hermannstadt W 1+ goals
69%
Hermannstadt W 2+ goals
33%
Hermannstadt W 3+ goals
12%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals
94%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals
77%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Hermannstadt W (draw refunded)
16%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hermannstadt W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hermannstadt W attack 1.00 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 1.92 + Hermannstadt W defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 2.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Hermannstadt W scores more
13%
level
16%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more
71%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hermannstadt W vs Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W beat Hermannstadt W 6-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on December 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Măgura in Cisnădie.