Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 6–0 Hermannstadt W

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

FT

6 – 0

Hermannstadt W

10/5/2024

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 7Baza Sportivă Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W92%

×Draw6%

Hermannstadt W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud WExpected goals in this matchHermannstadt W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.76

0.90

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

4.76

Hermannstadt W

0.90

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W creates 429% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

3.67

creates per match

0.62

1.18

allows per match

5.85

creates per match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

3.67

Hermannstadt W

0.62

allows per match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

1.18

Hermannstadt W

5.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par

Hermannstadt W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W ↓

Hermannstadt W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W or draw

97%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W or Hermannstadt W

94%

Draw or Hermannstadt W

8%

Winning margin

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+

80%

Hermannstadt W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals

99%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals

94%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals

82%

Hermannstadt W 1+ goals

59%

Hermannstadt W 2+ goals

23%

Hermannstadt W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)

97%

Hermannstadt W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Hermannstadt W away — creates 0.62, concedes 5.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 3.67 + Hermannstadt W defence 5.85 → ÷2 → 4.76

Hermannstadt W attack 0.62 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more

92%

level

6%

Hermannstadt W scores more

3%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff