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Heřmanice Slezská vs Frýdlant — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
CANC
13:30
Frýdlant
Frýdlant
4/11/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 15Stadion Heřmanice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heřmanice Slezská22%
×Draw19%
Frýdlant59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heřmanice Slezská
1.52
Frýdlant
2.55

Frýdlant creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 49 away

creates per match

Heřmanice Slezská
1.00
Frýdlant
1.69

allows per match

Heřmanice Slezská
3.42
Frýdlant
2.04

finishing

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par
Frýdlant+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heřmanice Slezská ↓

Frýdlant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Heřmanice Slezská or draw
41%
Heřmanice Slezská or Frýdlant
81%
Draw or Frýdlant
78%

Winning margin

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
10%
Frýdlant wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
78%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
45%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
20%
Frýdlant 1+ goals
92%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
72%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
27%
Frýdlant (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heřmanice Slezská at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.42 · 19 matches

Frýdlant away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heřmanice Slezská attack 1.00 + Frýdlant defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.52

Frýdlant attack 1.69 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Heřmanice Slezská scores more
22%
level
19%
Frýdlant scores more
59%

Frýdlant at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Frýdlant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Heřmanice Slezská vs Frýdlant — Match Preview

Heřmanice Slezská face Frýdlant on April 11, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Heřmanice Slezská host Frýdlant at Stadion Heřmanice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.