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Frýdlant vs Heřmanice Slezská — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Frýdlant
Frýdlant
FT
4 – 0
Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
10/9/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 11Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Frýdlant82%
×Draw11%
Heřmanice Slezská7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdlant
3.20
Heřmanice Slezská
0.84

Frýdlant creates 281% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Frýdlant
1.98
Heřmanice Slezská
0.47

allows per match

Frýdlant
1.21
Heřmanice Slezská
4.41

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par
Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Heřmanice Slezská →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw
93%
Frýdlant or Heřmanice Slezská
89%
Draw or Heřmanice Slezská
18%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+
64%
Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals
96%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
82%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
60%
Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
57%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
21%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)
92%
Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

Heřmanice Slezská away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.98 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 4.41 → ÷2 → 3.20

Heřmanice Slezská attack 0.47 + Frýdlant defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Frýdlant scores more
82%
level
11%
Heřmanice Slezská scores more
7%

Frýdlant at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Frýdlant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Frýdlant 4–0 Heřmanice Slezská

Frýdlant beat Heřmanice Slezská 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant in Frýdlant nad Ostravicí.