Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Heřmanice Slezská vs Dětmarovice — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
FT
0 – 1
Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
10/16/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 12Stadion Heřmanice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Heřmanice Slezská40%
×Draw20%
Dětmarovice40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heřmanice Slezská
2.28
Dětmarovice
2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Heřmanice Slezská
1.00
Dětmarovice
1.11

allows per match

Heřmanice Slezská
3.42
Dětmarovice
3.56

finishing

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par
Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heřmanice Slezská ↓

Dětmarovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Heřmanice Slezská or draw
60%
Heřmanice Slezská or Dětmarovice
80%
Draw or Dětmarovice
60%

Winning margin

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
23%
Dětmarovice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
90%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
66%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
39%
Dětmarovice 1+ goals
90%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
66%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
50%
Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heřmanice Slezská at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.42 · 19 matches

Dětmarovice away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heřmanice Slezská attack 1.00 + Dětmarovice defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.28

Dětmarovice attack 1.11 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Heřmanice Slezská scores more
40%
level
20%
Dětmarovice scores more
40%

Heřmanice Slezská at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Heřmanice Slezská will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Heřmanice Slezská 0–1 Dětmarovice

Dětmarovice beat Heřmanice Slezská 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Heřmanice in Ostrava.