Dětmarovice vs Heřmanice Slezská

Dětmarovice

CANC

15:00

Heřmanice Slezská

6/6/2021

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 23Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dětmarovice75%

×Draw14%

Heřmanice Slezská11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DětmaroviceExpected goals in this matchHeřmanice Slezská

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.07

Dětmarovice

2.96

Heřmanice Slezská

1.07

Dětmarovice creates 177% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.50

creates per match

0.47

1.67

allows per match

4.41

creates per match

Dětmarovice

1.50

Heřmanice Slezská

0.47

allows per match

Dětmarovice

1.67

Heřmanice Slezská

4.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dětmarovice ↓

Heřmanice Slezská →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Dětmarovice or draw

89%

Dětmarovice or Heřmanice Slezská

86%

Draw or Heřmanice Slezská

25%

Winning margin

Dětmarovice wins by 2+

55%

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dětmarovice 1+ goals

95%

Dětmarovice 2+ goals

79%

Dětmarovice 3+ goals

55%

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals

66%

Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals

29%

Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)

87%

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dětmarovice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Heřmanice Slezská away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dětmarovice attack 1.50 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 4.41 → ÷2 → 2.96

Heřmanice Slezská attack 0.47 + Dětmarovice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Dětmarovice scores more

75%

level

14%

Heřmanice Slezská scores more

11%

Dětmarovice at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Dětmarovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff